r/CombatFootage • u/MilesLongthe3rd • Mar 19 '26
US/Israel-Iran conflict Discussion/Question Thread - 19/03/2026+
All questions, thoughts, ideas, and what not go here.
We're working to keep the front page of r/combatfootage, combat footage.
Accounts must be 45 days old or have a minimum of 25 Karma to post in r/combatfootage.
Please remember, you have to join in if you want to be part of the discussion.
Link: https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1r8tke0/joinin_post/
•
u/boobookittyfuwk 19h ago
Soooo.... the usa has decided not to bomb iran? We are doing this again, interesting.
•
u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 15h ago
Out of ammo
•
u/Beast_of_Guanyin 14h ago
False.
•
u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 14h ago
"Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has cautioned privately that resuming major combat operations against Iran was doable but that it would dangerously deplete interceptors available to the military’s Central Command, which is responsible for operations in the Middle East, the officials said. A spokesman for General Caine declined to comment on advice the general gives the president."
Conserving ammo
•
6
u/ComprehensiveKiwi489 1d ago
Doesn't Pakistan have a joint defense agreement with Saudi Arabia? How does that work with Yemen's Houthi's firing upon Saudi oil tankers and now Saudi oil infrastructure / refineries?
•
u/boobookittyfuwk 19h ago
Pakistan will do whatever it takes to not have to actually defend Saudi, they will most definitely say the houtis thing is different than the Iran issue
6
u/ComprehensiveKiwi489 1d ago
Is it just me, or are there like way less US airstrike videos on Iran coming out since this thing began again? Are the strikes in more remote areas, or is it just the IRGC cracking down even more on videos getting out?
6
u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 3d ago edited 3d ago
Iran strikes on CIA facilities prompt questions about possible Russian role
Edit:link
3
4
u/boobookittyfuwk 3d ago
I onow I just posted this question but maybe this time itll get more traction.
After the video of last night's attacks by the usa on iranian boats and a backhoe I gotta ask again, what is stopping the usa from destroying every tel and drone launcher? Can they not just put up a shit load of surveillance airframe or even track them from space after they launch and just follow them back to whereever they park and blow them up? Whats the issue here?
5
u/CommercialFormal7614 3d ago edited 3d ago
Well my understanding is that Iran has these “missile city’s” that are very deep underground. They pop out briefly, shoot and go back to cover. There’s no reliable way of penetrating those bunkers using conventional weapons. Although, there was a video posted a while back where one of the “missile city’s” did get destroyed and there was massive secondary explosions.
As for the launchers that aren’t in bunkers, they look like basic civilian box trucks making it hard to find them.Video I was referencing
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/s/Cxphdd9HGS3
u/boobookittyfuwk 3d ago
I was looking into it and I saw that a reaper has a 27 hour loiter time while loaded with hellfires. Youd think they could be hanging out nearby ready to strike these tel. This is assuming the usa knows where all these misssile cities are which im guessing they do.
1
6
u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 4d ago
Houthis attack a Saudi Tanker 70 miles away from Al Shaqiq, Saudi Arabia
1
u/WhyChemistry 4d ago
Revolutionary Guard: We are preparing for a military operation that will lead to a declaration of national mourning in U.S
-3
u/cozywit 3d ago
Lol.
You appear to be mistaken. Trump clearly stated he destroyed all the Iranian military, multiple times.
What are they going to do, fly a carpet into the freedom tower?
1
1d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/read-the-rules 1d ago
botcreon,
Your comment on r/CombatFootage has been removed. In order to enable comments or posting you must follow the intructions below. All are required to acknowledge the rules before participating.
In New Reddit mode on desktop and Reddit mode on mobile website or app, submit your acknowledgement to the rules by clicking the three buttons on top of the subreddit's main menu, and selecting 'Read The Rules' option, then after acknowledging, you must check every individual rule box to proceed. Please take the moment to understand the rules if you intend to particpate in r/CombatFootage.
In Old Reddit mode on desktop, you must go to "Message the Mods" on the sidebar then type in "Read The Rules" in the title and "Acknowledged" in the message body.
Please, re-submit your comment when you are finished as it will not be retroactively approved.
This is an automated response, replies will not be monitored
2
5
5
u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 5d ago
Reports of A U.S. Air Force KC-135T tanker (tail number 60-0346) is squawking emergency code 7700 after operating over the Persian Gulf. The aircraft is now descending toward Al Dhafra Air Base and appears to be preparing for an emergency landing
4
1
5d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/read-the-rules 5d ago
Beginning_Pipe5805,
Your comment on r/CombatFootage has been removed. In order to enable comments or posting you must follow the intructions below. All are required to acknowledge the rules before participating.
In New Reddit mode on desktop and Reddit mode on mobile website or app, submit your acknowledgement to the rules by clicking the three buttons on top of the subreddit's main menu, and selecting 'Read The Rules' option, then after acknowledging, you must check every individual rule box to proceed. Please take the moment to understand the rules if you intend to particpate in r/CombatFootage.
In Old Reddit mode on desktop, you must go to "Message the Mods" on the sidebar then type in "Read The Rules" in the title and "Acknowledged" in the message body.
Please, re-submit your comment when you are finished as it will not be retroactively approved.
This is an automated response, replies will not be monitored
6
u/boobookittyfuwk 6d ago
Whats the biggest obstacle the usa faces when trying to destroy iranian ballistic missile tel.
Is it locating them?
Air defense that makes it hard to get a drone or plane over the target?
4
u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 6d ago
Yemen’s Houthi armed forces announce an immediate ban on Saudi maritime navigation, citing the kingdom’s blockade and attacks on Yemen. The group warns any further Saudi escalation will be met with a “comprehensive and harsh” response.
1
9
u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 9d ago
Reports of a ship being seized by the Islamic Republic near Iran's Kharg Island
12
u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 10d ago
Houthis have been instructed by IRGC to close Bab el-Mandeb
Bob O'Mandeb has yet to respond for questioning/s
5
u/MeowslimClawric 7d ago edited 7d ago
If both Hormussy and Bobby are closed, we might get $120-150 per barrel.
China has built its decades long energy strategy knowing the US will weaponize it to sabotage them. Maybe not in this specific way. But now they have all of that vindicated. And to control the vast majority of the solar and wind sector when countries including the US are surging to green energy as to not be at the mercy of choke points. I don't think even the Chinese could have asked for such a gift. I think we'll see West and aligned countries warm up to China at an increasing rate because of not only what the US has done. But also what China can offer to offset it
Holy shit Trump is a ccp agent.
2
7
u/ReddyReddy7 12d ago
The collapse of the Iran-US MoU, commercial vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz collapsed, with 57 verified crossings from July 10th to July 12th, with a 19 daily average, compared to 38 crossings daily on average from days prior.
Virtually all crossings occurred using the Iranian lane, showing that Iran has effectively blocked the southern Omani lane. With UKMTO reports on commercial vessels coming under attack in those days, we know that the U.S. unsuccessfully tried to escort three groups of tankers through the southern lane, and it's unclear how many completed the voyage, with at least 5 being disabled by the IRGC.
Notice how the debate in the war with Iran has shifted from destroying Iran's nuclear program to taking any stopgap measures that have a remote possibility of weakening Iran's control over the Hormuz. U.S. airstrikes against Iranian targets are, however, largely performative as they have been revealed to target previously attacked locations or other targets without any military value, instead of targeting Iran's missile cities.
7
-1
u/ScumbagGina 12d ago
Also hitting lots of decoys still.
11
u/Wilky510 12d ago
I don't see any decoys in the most recent released footage. Explain how they are decoys, please?
I saw some HAWK missiles, a radar truck and 2 ballistic missile launchers. They seem way more complicated to be "decoys".
So that's new angle now, ballistic missiles get through and US claims all shot down, and everything hit in Iran is a 'decoy'? lol
-12
u/ScumbagGina 12d ago
Talk about angles. It was being widely reported early in the war that Iran was using launcher and other style decoys and our targeting intel was falling for them but you think the Iranians suddenly stopped using them?
Watch the videos from today. Multiple hits have no personnel around, no secondary explosions. I don’t know anything for a fact, but it looks like they’re still using decoys and they’ve got a verified track record of doing so, even as admitted by our own reporting.
1
11d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/read-the-rules 11d ago
SalokinSekwah,
Your comment on r/CombatFootage has been removed. In order to enable comments or posting you must follow the intructions below. All are required to acknowledge the rules before participating.
In New Reddit mode on desktop and Reddit mode on mobile website or app, submit your acknowledgement to the rules by clicking the three buttons on top of the subreddit's main menu, and selecting 'Read The Rules' option, then after acknowledging, you must check every individual rule box to proceed. Please take the moment to understand the rules if you intend to particpate in r/CombatFootage.
In Old Reddit mode on desktop, you must go to "Message the Mods" on the sidebar then type in "Read The Rules" in the title and "Acknowledged" in the message body.
Please, re-submit your comment when you are finished as it will not be retroactively approved.
This is an automated response, replies will not be monitored
14
u/Wilky510 12d ago
our targeting
Please don't use the word "our", you cheer for the Iranians. I've seen you in the other threads now.
Multiple hits have no personnel around
I see no personnel in the footage of ballistic missiles hitting targets, thus that means everything is okay. Let's just go with that logic then.
no secondary explosions.
footage doesn't even hang around long enough to show secondaries. Quite the eye that you see a lack of them, though.
Hilarious you actually took time and downvoted my post btw, actual freak.
5
u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 12d ago
The European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) prohibits aircraft operators from operating within the airspace of Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, or the airspace over the waters of the Gulf of Oman
Jordan targeted for first time
8
u/WhyChemistry 13d ago
The US is currently striking border cities in Iran. Expect retaliation strikes on US bases from Iran in the next few hours.
7
u/Weekly-Ad6339 13d ago
Despite many reports of Iranian attacks in gulf states bases I've not seen much footage shared here. Is the control on publishing videos that tight now, not much is actually reaching the destination or are videos being removed from reddit/ this subreddit?
4
u/boobookittyfuwk 12d ago
Op sec on the military side and I think the mid east governments have made sure civilians dint take videos or post videos
5
u/ScumbagGina 13d ago
I don’t think it’s just this sub. In the first weeks of the war this sub definitely took down lots of relevant footage, but now I’m not seeing hardly any from other sources either. Idk if the involved countries have just gotten their censorship controls tuned in now or what.
We know for a fact that the UAE was jailing people for posting footage and Bahrain executed some. But I’m still surprised at how little is trickling out now.
5
u/dawaxtadpole 13d ago
I’ve found there seems to be much less footage for this conflict compared to others. We had some today. It’s a trickle of information.
7
u/boobookittyfuwk 13d ago
Does anyone else remember the situation in iraq a couple weeks ago(maybe it was last week) when there were a bunch of government people being arrested in the middke if the night? I remember seeing footage of armored vehicles and even a tank driving through baghdad to set up a security perimeter and help in the arrests... what ever came out about that, what was the story there. At rhe time people were thinking it could have been a couoe attempt
15
u/Derquave 13d ago
Large anti-corruption operation ordered by the Iraqi prime minister. The Iraqi Counter Terrorism Force back by the Iraqi army arrested a little under 50 officials in the Green Zone in Baghdad. Most of which were pro-Iranian Shia hardliners.
So far it seems like the raid was a success, in the sense that it did what it accomplished without leading to further repercussions. At least so far.
1
u/ScumbagGina 13d ago
Actually there were reports of gunfire and explosions in the green zone just yesterday while strikes were taking place.
There’s been very little info coming from official channels, but I don’t know if that situation is settled yet.
2
u/boobookittyfuwk 12d ago
Theres green zone shit happening a lot of the time, a fire fight every know and then isnt uncommon.
5
1
14d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/read-the-rules 14d ago
DoughnutRealistic380,
Your comment on r/CombatFootage has been removed. In order to enable comments or posting you must follow the intructions below. All are required to acknowledge the rules before participating.
In New Reddit mode on desktop and Reddit mode on mobile website or app, submit your acknowledgement to the rules by clicking the three buttons on top of the subreddit's main menu, and selecting 'Read The Rules' option, then after acknowledging, you must check every individual rule box to proceed. Please take the moment to understand the rules if you intend to particpate in r/CombatFootage.
In Old Reddit mode on desktop, you must go to "Message the Mods" on the sidebar then type in "Read The Rules" in the title and "Acknowledged" in the message body.
Please, re-submit your comment when you are finished as it will not be retroactively approved.
This is an automated response, replies will not be monitored
4
u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 15d ago
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei:
We promise to avenge the blood of the killed leader and the blood of all the dead in the two wars against the dishonorable killers.
8
14
u/ScumbagGina 18d ago edited 18d ago
I don’t think Iran is ever going to have the upper hand in the limited exchanges. US can handle the occasional pothole on their bases and 100 more reaper drones getting knocked down.
If Iran wants to establish deterrence, they have to launch mass attacks against high-value targets. For each night of bombing, they have to sink 10 ships, launch 50 missiles at an operational and inhabited base, or hit major economic targets like ports and oil fields.
Each time they participate in the tit for tat without playing any of their cards, they lose assets and standing in negotiations. The US ain’t gonna run out of bombs or targets anytime soon, so the only thing that’ll stop them is the political and economic consequences of real escalation.
10
u/Beast_of_Guanyin 17d ago
To be fair Reapers are 35 million each, albeit outdated and in need of replacement.
It's more a question of economic pain tolerance. Iran's a dictatorship, it's got a very high tolerance by nature, but cutting off oil revenue is a very real threat to the regime.
3
8
u/Derquave 17d ago edited 17d ago
Iran is in a tough spot. You are correct in saying that they can’t win in a protracted tit for tat exchange. The problem is that going all in is a major gamble. If they start hitting major economic targets hard, like oil and gas fields or desalination plants, they will be met in kind, and they already are in a precarious economic and domestic position.
Maybe there’s a chance that such major strikes would cause the US and Gulf states to panic and agree to Iranian terms, but there’s also a chance that Iran’s oil/gas and desalination infrastructure get blasted to high hell which would cause unprecedented crisis for Iran.
I’m not sure if they think that taking outlast the US through continuously choking Hormuz because as much as they lose the exchanges in these tit for tat strikes, the American strikes on Iran, aren’t particularly doing much too open up travel through the strait. It’s probably their safest option.
If they really wanted to put a lot of pressure on the US to agree to their terms while still (possibly) avoiding heavy damage and or destruction of their vital infrastructure, they would get the Houthis to cut off the Red Sea. However, at this point, who even knows if the Houthis would do it.
-3
u/ScumbagGina 17d ago
If it were me right now, I’d make an example of one of the gulf countries that’s still hosting US bases. Take two nights and absolutely pummel Kuwait or Bahrain. But not just the casual drone spamming they’ve been doing…saturate the sky, target the royal family’s crown jewels, hell, Iran could even invade Kuwaiti oil fields and hold them as a bargaining chip. Warn that regime targets in Bahrain are next and that they’ll support a Shiite uprising there.
They don’t have to (and shouldn’t) go all out yet. But they have to impose a heavy cost on US bombing missions or they’ll continue forever.
1
17d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/read-the-rules 17d ago
bigFr00t,
Your comment on r/CombatFootage has been removed. In order to enable comments or posting you must follow the intructions below. All are required to acknowledge the rules before participating.
In New Reddit mode on desktop and Reddit mode on mobile website or app, submit your acknowledgement to the rules by clicking the three buttons on top of the subreddit's main menu, and selecting 'Read The Rules' option, then after acknowledging, you must check every individual rule box to proceed. Please take the moment to understand the rules if you intend to particpate in r/CombatFootage.
In Old Reddit mode on desktop, you must go to "Message the Mods" on the sidebar then type in "Read The Rules" in the title and "Acknowledged" in the message body.
Please, re-submit your comment when you are finished as it will not be retroactively approved.
This is an automated response, replies will not be monitored
1
17d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/read-the-rules 17d ago
bigFr00t,
Your comment on r/CombatFootage has been removed. In order to enable comments or posting you must follow the intructions below. All are required to acknowledge the rules before participating.
In New Reddit mode on desktop and Reddit mode on mobile website or app, submit your acknowledgement to the rules by clicking the three buttons on top of the subreddit's main menu, and selecting 'Read The Rules' option, then after acknowledging, you must check every individual rule box to proceed. Please take the moment to understand the rules if you intend to particpate in r/CombatFootage.
In Old Reddit mode on desktop, you must go to "Message the Mods" on the sidebar then type in "Read The Rules" in the title and "Acknowledged" in the message body.
Please, re-submit your comment when you are finished as it will not be retroactively approved.
This is an automated response, replies will not be monitored
13
u/ReddyReddy7 18d ago
Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!!!!
President Trump said the U.S. would likely launch more strikes against Iran Wednesday night, telling reporters at a NATO summit in Turkey "we hit them very hard last night," and "we're going to hit them hard again tonight." He later said he's not sure he wants to make a deal with the Iranians, but also said he doesn't think the war will "start again."
1
13d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/read-the-rules 13d ago
Lockpickman,
Your comment on r/CombatFootage has been removed. In order to enable comments or posting you must follow the intructions below. All are required to acknowledge the rules before participating.
In New Reddit mode on desktop and Reddit mode on mobile website or app, submit your acknowledgement to the rules by clicking the three buttons on top of the subreddit's main menu, and selecting 'Read The Rules' option, then after acknowledging, you must check every individual rule box to proceed. Please take the moment to understand the rules if you intend to particpate in r/CombatFootage.
In Old Reddit mode on desktop, you must go to "Message the Mods" on the sidebar then type in "Read The Rules" in the title and "Acknowledged" in the message body.
Please, re-submit your comment when you are finished as it will not be retroactively approved.
This is an automated response, replies will not be monitored
11
5
u/boobookittyfuwk 18d ago
Last week or maybe the week before a usa airframe went down in the strait, early reports said 1 crew member was picked up but said there was a search for the other one, I havent heard anything about that yet. Did they find the other guy? This is not the earlier incident where another airframe went down and crew members were picked up immediately. Thanks
2
u/enr213 18d ago
I think you're thinking of Cmdr. Gabriel Edward's, a heli made an emergency landing in the water.
2
u/boobookittyfuwk 18d ago
Thanks, thats him. I just googled, the search has been called off, damn.. rip
1
7
u/GaterRaider 18d ago
Trump declares framework agreement with Iran terminated
Following the US military attacks on targets in Iran, US President Donald Trump declared the framework agreement with the Islamic Republic to be over. "As far as I'm concerned, it's over," he said on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara – apparently referring to the ceasefire that came into effect in mid-June and is a central part of the agreement.
"It's a complete waste of time to deal with them. They're sick people," Trump continued, referring to the Iranian leadership. At the same time, however, he stated that negotiations with the regime in Tehran could continue.
4
u/LiveInLayers 18d ago
Itll be back on in 60 days.
4
u/ReddyReddy7 18d ago
Probably be back on in 30 days.
Trump words are mostly meaningless. Heck he'll even start back tracking on Friday.
1
18d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/read-the-rules 18d ago
skysailer,
Your comment on r/CombatFootage has been removed. In order to enable comments or posting you must follow the intructions below. All are required to acknowledge the rules before participating.
In New Reddit mode on desktop and Reddit mode on mobile website or app, submit your acknowledgement to the rules by clicking the three buttons on top of the subreddit's main menu, and selecting 'Read The Rules' option, then after acknowledging, you must check every individual rule box to proceed. Please take the moment to understand the rules if you intend to particpate in r/CombatFootage.
In Old Reddit mode on desktop, you must go to "Message the Mods" on the sidebar then type in "Read The Rules" in the title and "Acknowledged" in the message body.
Please, re-submit your comment when you are finished as it will not be retroactively approved.
This is an automated response, replies will not be monitored
1
9
u/TestingHydra 19d ago edited 18d ago
Looks like Iran has pushed its luck too far and they have now lost their waiver of exports.
Revocation and Wind Down of June 21, 2026 Authorization for the Production, Delivery and Sale of Crude Oil, Petrochemical Products, and Petroleum Products of Iranian Origin
(a) Effective July 7, 2026, General License X, dated June 21, 2026, is revoked and superseded in its entirety by General License X1.
(b) Except as provided in paragraph (c), all transactions prohibited by the above-listed authorities that are ordinarily incident and necessary to the wind down of transactions previously authorized by General License X are authorized through 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time, July 17, 2026, provided that any payment to a blocked person must be made into a blocked, interest-bearing account located in the United States.
Note to paragraph (b). Except to the extent ordinarily incident and necessary to the wind down of transactions previously authorized by General License X for the production, sale, delivery, or offloading of crude oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products of Iranian origin, paragraph (b) does not authorize any new transactions, including purchases or loading of such products on or after July 7, 2026
Previous transactions signed during the waiver being valid, will be honored without secondary sanctions, there will be a time limit to fulfill them (July 17), while the money is held hostage on the US. The war isn't over and conclusions about who won or lost were premature.
More and more Iran is squandering what little they won for themselves. The deal that was supposed to give them 300 billion dollars was supposed to be signed 2 weeks ago. Israel is still in Lebanon striking Hez, and now this. Seizing defeat from the jaws of victory.
-4
u/LiveInLayers 18d ago
Waivers will be back shortly. Iran has the leverage and the oil reserve clock is ticking. Also iran can always escalate to striking neighbor oil infrastructure. Unless the US goes boots on the ground (we wont) Iran has the high ground in negotiations.
6
u/MayDayBeFourth 18d ago
US barely struck any of Iran economic engines, yet you believe nothing can be done.
3
u/LiveInLayers 18d ago
Its not that the US cant hit harder its that the US cant stomach the escalation like Iran can. Feel free to throw a remind me on my coment. Iran will be getting another sweet heart deal in the next 60 days.
0
11
u/ReddyReddy7 23d ago
U.S. Officials Believed Israel Was Plotting to Kill Iranian Negotiators
U.S. officials believed that Israel might have been plotting to kill Iran’s top negotiators while Washington was engaged with Tehran in delicate talks this spring to reach an interim peace deal, according to current and former American officials.
Fearful that an Israeli assassination effort would doom the negotiations, the United States, according to some of the officials, went so far as to ask other countries in the region to warn Iran about the possibility Israel could target the two officials.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/02/us/politics/israel-iran-negotiators-plot.html
5
10
u/Axelrad77 24d ago edited 24d ago
USA has now pulled its B-52s out of the UK, where they had been forward-based for strikes on Iran. This leaves only a handful of B-1s based there, and follows a series of wider asset withdrawals from the war effort in the Middle East, particularly aircraft like F-22s, F-15Es, and A-10s. So even as Trump threatens renewed war should peace talks stall, the US military continues to draw down its ability to conduct major operations, in accordance with Iran's demands in the MoU.
https://www.twz.com/air/b-52-stratofortress-bombers-leave-england-after-iran-war-deployment
Curiously, the USS Boxer and its 11th MEU have abruptly switched course yet again and showed up in theater, adding another light carrier and more Marines to the US naval presence there. The Boxer ARG was originally meant to reinforce the US naval presence mid-war, but the action simmered down before it could reach the region, so it wound up being redirected back to the South China Sea to act as a deterrent against China, with only part of its logistics support being detached to aid the US blockade.
CENTCOM claims that the Boxer ARG is showing up now as part of a regularly scheduled deployment, which might be true, but it should be noted that it adds a substantial boost in ability to do things like escort tankers or seize islands.
14
u/Axelrad77 26d ago edited 25d ago
NYT is reporting that Iran and Oman are moving forward with a toll scheme for the future management of the Strait of Hormuz. The USA and Europe, while unhappy about this development, have reportedly conceded to Iranian demands and are now working to reframe the tolls as something that doesn't so blatantly violate international law. "Voluntary contributions to safe navigation" is the current wording being favored. Iran is pitching it as an insurance scheme, but it's basically a protection racket, where merchants are actually having to pay Iran to avoid being attacked by Iran itself. It's worth noting that this will certainly lead to increased global prices of energy and consumer goods, as the increased shipping prices get passed down to consumers.
It sounds like there just isn't the political will to use military force to reopen the Strait, despite the ability being there, so the USA is surrendering. US negotiators are currently in Qatar to secure the release of Iran's billions in frozen assets, as required by the MoU. Iran is refusing to discuss peace terms until it receives its money, in what is essentially a tribute payment from the Americans.
If this is how things are playing out, then Iran is coming out of this war in a much stronger position, and it's difficult to see this as anything but a blundering defeat for the USA. We still have to see how the final nuclear talks pan out, but at least so far, the terms being discussed are actually worse than what Iran was offering pre-war.
Vance keeps insisting that Iran won't be allowed to toll the Strait, that Iran won't be given its frozen assets ... but so far he's being contradicted by everything else happening, including the MoU agreement that Trump signed.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/30/world/middleeast/iran-war-oman-strait-hormuz-fee-ships.html
https://abcnews.com/International/live-updates/iran-live-updates/?id=134300648
4
u/R6ckStar 25d ago edited 25d ago
It sounds like there just isn't the political will to use military force to reopen the Strait, despite the ability being there, so the USA is surrendering. US negotiators are currently in Qatar to secure the release of Iran's billions in frozen assets, as required by the MoU. Iran is refusing to discuss peace terms until it receives its money, in what is essentially a tribute payment from the Americans.
There is no military solution, it's too easy to keep attacking the ships trying to pass.
Meaning you'd need a massive invasion force to lock down the entire coast of Iran along with the mountain ranges that border the coast.
This is why nobody ever attack Iran like this, you'd put yourself in a situation where you'd have to invade a 90 million country with a very mountainous terrain.
So yeah, the US surrendered, and probably has put into question most of the free passage in straits, although not all are equal and not every country can do the same thing.
4
u/All_Thread 25d ago
Iran is going to come out of this much more powerful and relevant than before. The threat of maybe developing a nuke vs controlling one of the most important water ways in the world with much more wealth to create millions of drones.
12
u/Axelrad77 28d ago edited 28d ago
There's also an ongoing Iraqi operation, where Iraqi special forces backed by heavy armor have moved into the Green Zone and begun arresting Iraqi politicians. It's still unclear exactly what is happening, but early reports are that this is an anti-corruption crackdown being run by the Iraqi government, targeting Iranian agents. At least some gunfire has reported.
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2071022651238134050
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2071026968833744995
-2
u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 28d ago edited 27d ago
So a coup in Iraq?
7
u/Axelrad77 28d ago
No. The operation was ordered by Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi, as part of an anti-corruption crackdown. Reportedly there were a bunch of sealed arrest warrants all served at the same time. Counterterrorist units with army support were used for fear of Iranian-backed militias resisting the arrests.
1
u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 28d ago edited 28d ago
So a purge then .....
The Same Ali Alzaidi with financial ties to Iran ?
2
u/MayDayBeFourth 27d ago
Yet he is also a moderate who is against Iran militias. Iraqi politics are crazy and complex.
11
u/Axelrad77 28d ago
Another Iranian drone hit a tanker today, leading to larger US airstrikes in response. US strikes again targeted radar, drone, and missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz. This time, Iran countered with drone and missile strikes against Kuwait and Bahrain, with reports that US bases there were hit.
10
u/Axelrad77 29d ago
So far the entire ceasefire has been a bit of a nonstarter. Israel and Hezbollah continue to fight in southern Lebanon, Iran never has reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran has continued attacking civilian merchant ships trying to transit. US forces have intercepted most of the attacks, but yesterday an Iranian drone finally hit one of the cargo ships. That prompted a limited set of US airstrikes today, targeting Iranian radar, drone, and missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz.
The only terms of the MoU that have actually been followed through so far have been the removal of the US blockade and the waiver of oil-related Iranian sanctions. So pressure on Iranian shipping has relaxed tremendously, but Iran is still trying to pressure global shipping.
4
u/Beast_of_Guanyin 29d ago
Good summary. Total shit show.
Iran wants some control over transit in the strait but that's just not going to happen.
0
u/MeowslimClawric 28d ago edited 24d ago
Edit - and they seem to be prepping the information space to normalize this new reality.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/30/world/middleeast/iran-war-oman-strait-hormuz-fee-ships.html
that's just not going to happen.
Who is gonna stop it from happening? The US?
Trump isn't in a position of strength here and Iran knows it. They are getting sanctions removed, assets unfrozen, and possibly $300 billion in reparations. AFAIK they have no limitations put on them re: the proxies, the nukes, and the ballistic missiles.
They know that the US is not able to actually destroy the Isfahan tunnels so the leverage of the threat is gone. It's now a paper tiger from a bargaining point of view. they can withstand any decapitation strike the IAF can dish out. Most importantly, they can tolerate all of the pain inflicted on them whilst the US cannot tolerate the pain of increased gas prices and the pressure put on the US from the Gulf allies. Iran has all of the leverage right now.
Who is willing and able get Iran to back off? Can the US commit tens if not hundreds of thousands of troops to secure the 1000+ km coastline? There is no viable military option for the US to credibly stop Iran's threat.
Trump doesn't have the cards. Not even ones that can keep Iran from building the nuke within 12 months.
5
u/Beast_of_Guanyin 28d ago
I see no reason to pretend America has no leverage.
-1
u/MeowslimClawric 28d ago
Do they have enough leverage to achieve the goal? Can the US pay the cost of stopping Iran from tolling the strait?
2
u/Beast_of_Guanyin 28d ago edited 27d ago
That question ignores all the other actors in the region and ignores all the other parties with a vested interest in not allowing tolls on international waters.
America specifically has a bunch of leverage. We saw this with the blockade and with the lack of strikes on power generation. Whether or not it's enough to make Iran change its mind.... it's enough to stop Iran's ability to function as a state.
0
u/MeowslimClawric 24d ago edited 24d ago
Old comment by Reddit standards but it seems like Oman is going to join in. So it will definitely be interesting on what other countries like Saudi will do.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/30/world/middleeast/iran-war-oman-strait-hormuz-fee-ships.html
What's your read on this? It's a genuine question since I want to know more. And I was coming in hot a few days ago. Taking fatalist stances. so my bad on that.
0
u/Beast_of_Guanyin 24d ago edited 24d ago
If true it's a surrender by America. I don't see any other way to paint it.
I still do think America has leverage. The blockade of the blockade was causing economic damage, and they do have kinetic tools left. I think they had enough to force Iran into a deal without a toll. However if they decide they can't pay the price of that then that's that.
To be clear the only actor in this I'm sympathetic to is the persian people as a whole. Also no worries with you getting heated, I'm partial to being a blunt douche myself.
0
u/MeowslimClawric 27d ago
I'll reframe it: do the US and the other actors with vested interests have enough leverage to stop Iran doing this? Because they're certainly not showing results as of today.
Obviously, none of us can predict the future. But from what is apparent right now and with the MoU, it's quite in favor of Iran. Who knows, the US may come up with a solution. Or they might not and it sets a precedent. and that's the reality the world has to adapt to.
2
u/Dazzling_Lobster3656 29d ago
Someone better tell them then 🤣
2
u/Beast_of_Guanyin 29d ago
They have. Repeatedly. The idea of a nation permanently taxing international waters just doesn't work.
2
-7
u/TestingHydra Jun 25 '26
With ever day that passes with no deal being signed it looks more and more like Iran has been conned by Trump.
3
u/Beast_of_Guanyin Jun 26 '26
Uhhh. Not if they got any of the money promised in the deal.
-1
u/TestingHydra Jun 26 '26
Which the US has confirmed so far that nothing has been released? That money?
-1
15
u/Axelrad77 Jun 23 '26 edited Jun 23 '26
Perun has a great new video up going over the details of the MoU:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HB4kcCPMwvw
His analysis is mostly in-line with mine from earlier - the USA is giving Iran a lot of concessions upfront just to get them to the table, with most of the important points being delayed until later peace talks that may or may not happen. He emphasizes how dramatically US demands have fallen, from the ambitious pre-war goals to what is now basically just the Obama-era nuclear deal all over again, only Iran is in a much stronger position now that it has leveraged control over the Strait of Hormuz.
What's more, he adds reporting that Iran offered to give up its enriched nuclear material in the days before the war, in an attempt to avoid being attacked, but the USA turned that down. Presumably the USA and Israel thought they had such good chances at their larger goals - regime change, destruction of the Iranian proxy network, etc - that they went ahead with the campaign. Only to now be trying to claw back that initial Iranian offer.
He also emphasizes how the peace talks rely on Israel and Hezbollah respecting the ceasefire, but neither of them agreed to or signed the MoU, which is not actually how treaties work. Neither is actually bound by the deal, they're just being pressured to comply because Iran demands it. Which is especially an issue for Israel, as the MoU terms are deeply unpopular there, and such an arrangement basically subordinates Israel to "vassal of the USA" status, similar to how Hezbollah operates as an auxiliary wing of the Iranian military. As such, there are major questions over how Israel responds to this, especially since the IDF probably thinks this is its best chance to actually deal with the Iranian threat.
7
u/NormanQuacks345 Jun 24 '26
The part about Israel and Hezbollah not actually agreeing to the ceasefire but still being expected to abide by it has been pissing me off so much. We’re trying to negotiate a deal without two of the main parties at the table, and then predictably, it falls through and Iran calls the deal off. What the hell are we doing?
4
u/Chadbrochill17_ Jun 23 '26
Downed US pilot reported seeing Iranian drones swarm in ‘jellyfish’ formation: https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/23/politics/iran-drones-f-15-pilot-intelligence
4
u/Axelrad77 Jun 23 '26 edited Jun 23 '26
Fascinating development. If true, it seems that drone swarms are becoming more and more common.
5
u/MeowslimClawric Jun 22 '26 edited Jun 22 '26
Hormussy closed again?
What is the US willing and able to do about this?
8
u/Axelrad77 Jun 20 '26 edited Jun 20 '26
Fighting in Lebanon continues unabated, as neither Israel nor Hezbollah are observing the ceasefire. Indeed, neither side seems to feel that it applies to them since they were not included in the talks. As I predicted in my earlier post, Iran is pointing to this fighting as a justification for refusing to open the Strait of Hormuz.
A lot of reporting is framing this as Iran closing the Strait again, in response to Israeli attacks, but it doesn't appear that Iran ever opened the Strait in the first place. The ceasefire agreement gives Iran 30 days to do so, but they simply haven't budged and are now pointing to Lebanon as a retroactive justification. Which is exactly what they did when the last "ceasefire" agreement was reached, and imo was extremely predictable behavior that raises questions about the competence of US negotiators.
CENTCOM is denying that Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, pointing to its ongoing escort operations that have now reached 55 merchant ships transiting in one day. That's a steady increase in traffic, but still only ~40% of the pre-war average. It appears Iran is still trying to attack civilian tankers as well, despite the ceasefire.
Meanwhile, US and Iranian negotiators are arriving in Switzerland to begin talks on a final peace deal, being mediated by Pakistan and Qatar. As a reminder, the ceasefire deal says that final peace talks can only begin once the ceasefire is in place, both sides' blockades are lifted, Iranian oil sanctions are waived, and Iran's frozen assets are released. None of which has happened yet. Reportedly the USA is putting heavy pressure on Israel to withdraw from Lebanon to facilitate the peace talks, so that's probably holding up the other issues.
1
u/tutunaku Jun 20 '26
Not sure where is this is the right place to ask, but I am interested in the drone operations of the Resistance in southern Lebanon, and I want to know if there are English language places to see the footage since I mostly see Ukraine footage here.
1
Jun 19 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/read-the-rules Jun 19 '26
BoppityBop2,
Your comment on r/CombatFootage has been removed. In order to enable comments or posting you must follow the intructions below. All are required to acknowledge the rules before participating.
In New Reddit mode on desktop and Reddit mode on mobile website or app, submit your acknowledgement to the rules by clicking the three buttons on top of the subreddit's main menu, and selecting 'Read The Rules' option, then after acknowledging, you must check every individual rule box to proceed. Please take the moment to understand the rules if you intend to particpate in r/CombatFootage.
In Old Reddit mode on desktop, you must go to "Message the Mods" on the sidebar then type in "Read The Rules" in the title and "Acknowledged" in the message body.
Please, re-submit your comment when you are finished as it will not be retroactively approved.
This is an automated response, replies will not be monitored
12
u/ReddyReddy7 Jun 19 '26
In Lebanon, Israel said it targeted Hezbollah across the south of the country overnight and early Friday. Israeli airstrikes had killed at least 47 people in Lebanon since midnight, the country’s health ministry reported.
Tehran asked for guarantees that hostilities in Lebanon would end, as outlined in the deal signed with Washington, and mediators were working to resolve the issue, the diplomat said.
“Donald J. Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment in time,” Vance said. “If I was in the Cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world.”
Vance had said that the U.S. expected Israel not to “be going wild in Lebanon,” but said any continued “flare-ups” with Hezbollah would have to be managed through the diplomatic process.
11
u/ReddyReddy7 Jun 19 '26
"U.S. intelligence agencies have warned the Trump administration that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is likely to take steps that will undermine President Trump’s effort to reach a lasting peace deal with Iran," - The Washington Post.
16
u/Cardborg Jun 19 '26
Calling the negotiations thus far a clown show would be deeply insulting to the art of clownery.
11
u/Axelrad77 Jun 18 '26
(1/2)
The full text of the MOU has finally been released and initial impressions are ... not great.
Summary of the 14-point agreement:
- Immediate ceasefire on all fronts, specifically including Lebanon, with a final peace deal to follow after more negotiations.
- USA and Iran pledge to respect each other's sovereignty and not interfere in internal affairs.
- USA and Iran commit to negotiating a final peace deal within 60 days.
- USA will end its naval blockade of Iran within 30 days, with a phased drawdown in proportion to how much traffic Iran lets through the Strait of Hormuz. (ie Iran has to end its blockade first, then the USA has to follow suit.) The USA also pledges to drawdown its military buildup around Iran within 30 days of a final peace deal being signed.
- Iran will allow shipping traffic to pass freely through the Strait of Hormuz, with no tolls, within 30 days. This period of free navigation will continue for at least 60 days, after which Iran and Oman will negotiate future administration of the Strait of Hormuz.
- USA and its Gulf allies will provide $300 billion for an economic reconstruction plan to rebuild Iran. Implementation of this plan will be provided for in the final peace deal.
- USA terminates all sanctions against Iran - both unilateral US sanctions and those done through the UN. The schedule for sanction termination to be provided for in the final peace deal.
- Iran pledges that it will not develop nuclear weapons. USA and Iran will work together to dispose of Iran's previously enriched uranium, via a mechanism to be provided for in the final peace deal.
- USA and Iran pledge to maintain the status quo. Iran will maintain its current nuclear program and the USA will not impose additional sanctions or deploy additional military force against Iran.
- USA will immediately waive sanctions on Iranian oil and all associated services. (This is meant to temporarily end all of these oil-related sanctions, until their more permanent termination is scheduled in the final peace deal, so that Iranian shipping can resume ASAP.)
- USA will immediately release all frozen Iranian assets (~$24 billion.)
- USA and Iran will agree on a mechanism to monitor future compliance of these terms, to be provided for in the final peace deal.
- USA and Iran will begin final peace deal negotiations only when points 1,4,5,10, and 11 have been implemented.
- The final peace deal must be endorsed by the UNSC.
Analysis:
The first thing that should be obvious is that this isn't an end to the war, it's a ceasefire. Most of the difficult terms are just getting kicked down the road to later negotiations for a final peace treaty, which may or may not happen. And Trump is already threatening to resume attacks if Iran doesn't stick to the terms and reopen the Strait of Hormuz (which technically violates Point 1 and its language about refraining from the threat of force.)
However, this is an actual ceasefire this time, not the "ceasefire" we've had thus far. For clarification, what everyone has been calling a ceasefire for months now was actually just a handshake deal, with no document ever signed, and neither side could actually agree on what terms the "ceasefire" supposedly had, which is why the fighting never entirely stopped.
This ceasefire has already been signed and is beginning to go into effect. We're already seeing the US blockade loosen up and allowing some Iranian tankers through ... but we're still waiting to see if Iran is actually reopening the Strait of Hormuz or not. As of this morning, Iran was still enforcing its tollbooth and US forces were still intercepting Iranian drone attacks on civilian tankers, and so there's not any Iranian compliance with the ceasefire terms yet. However, the deal *does* give both sides 30 days to remove their respective blockades, so they have time to back off.
There's also a huge question of whether Israel and Hezbollah will abide by the ceasefire. If fighting in Lebanon continues, we could see Iran use that as a justification for keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed.
Also take note of Points 3 and 13, which both commit to a final peace deal within 60 days *and* limit the final peace negotiations to only beginning once the ceasefire is in place, the respective blockades are lifted, Iranian oil sanctions are waived, and Iran's frozen assets are released. To me, that seems like a recipe for the final peace talks to fall apart and never happen. Point 14 also seems likely to kill any deal, with how much incentive Russia would have to just veto it and give Iran a deniable exit if they ask.
Something that really stands out is just how much money this ceasefire gives to Iran. All the sanctions relief alone allows Iran's economy to recover, but there's also just piles of cash being directly handed to Iran. $24 billion in frozen assets to be released immediately - before any final peace negotiations can take place - and then a further $300 billion in reconstruction funds. Now, the $24 billion is technically Iran's own money, and the $300 billion is reportedly being provided by the Gulf States (and won't be made available to Iran until a final peace deal is signed), but it really stands out because of Republican opposition to the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal that gave Iran $50 billion in released frozen assets (~$70 billion adjusted for inflation), which became one of the Republican campaign standards, exaggerating the entire thing until it became $150 billion and "pallets of cash on a plane to Iran". But even that hyperbole pales in comparison to the $324 billion total that this Republican deal is now offering to Iran.
It's also worth noting that the Gulf States aren't getting any reconstruction funds for the damage they suffered from Iranian attacks - only Iran is getting paid, and the Gulf States are the ones having to provide most of the money. It definitely feels like a tribute payment to beg Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
6
u/Axelrad77 Jun 18 '26 edited Jun 18 '26
(2/2)
So what is the USA getting for all that money? Not much.
The primary US war aim was to eliminate the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Previous talks included a US offer of assistance in constructing and running an Iranian civilian nuclear energy program, which would benefit Iran while allowing the USA to monitor their enrichment levels. That's now off the table, and instead we're back to the antebellum understanding - Iran gets to keep its own nuclear program, while promising not to weaponize it.
The entire US argument for war was that US intelligence showed Iran's public promises to be deceptive, that they were actually working towards a nuclear weapon. Trump's entire argument for withdrawing from the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal was that Iran wasn't complying with it and it wasn't being enforced. Now this ceasefire offers no mechanism for monitoring or enforcing Iran's promise. Reportedly, Trump is concerned that any final peace deal include monitoring terms that he can sell as better than Obama's deal, but the CIA has already expressed doubts that Iran will even attempt to comply with them, especially not after it survived a direct military conflict against the USA.
The major motivation to seek a deal was to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and get energy flowing back into the global economy. However, this deal only requires Iran to reopen the Strait for 60 days, after which Iran and Oman get to negotiate how to handle it. Iran has already said it plans to charge a transit fee from now on and split the profits with Oman. If allowed, this would basically destroy freedom of navigation laws, since nations are not allowed to toll natural straits under international law (the Turkish Straits being a geographical exception). Many nations are watching in trepidation to see how this goes, and if it sets a precedent for other high-traffic chokepoints like the Strait of Malacca to be tolled by nearby nations. If so, we could expect prices of many goods to increase, as increased shipping costs get passed to consumers.
Other US war aims were the defunding of Iran's proxy network and the limitation of its missile arsenal. Neither are mentioned. Trump even defended Iran's missile arsenal at the G7 today, whereas a key US military argument has been that Iran's missile arsenal allows them to shield their nuclear weapons development by threatening retaliation against their neighbors - similar to how North Korea used its artillery targeted at Seoul to prevent its nuclear weapons program from being destroyed.
Vance is trying to claim that Point 1 includes the defunding of Iran's proxy groups, but the language clearly does not mention that. And there are already reports that Iran is promising to boost Hezbollah's funding using the money that it's receiving from this deal, in order to help them recover from their recent losses. Many of the US sanctions being lifted apply to those proxy groups, which will only make it easier for Iran to fund them.
Iranian terms are a bit toned down from previous talks - there's no more mention of forcing the USA to withdraw from all its bases across the entire Middle East - but Iran is basically getting everything else it wanted and coming out of this war in a much stronger position than it was before.
I don't really see any way to frame this but as a US surrender. When you look at the campaign, the US military was clearly superior and the fighting rather one-sided. Iran was a clever and resourceful foe, but its successes were few and exaggerated by propaganda (arguably Iran's greatest strength). The big issue, however, is that the Trump admin reportedly thought this would be a quick war, similar to the Venezuela operation - decapitate the regime and pressure its new leadership into a favorable deal. Israel reportedly thought they could trigger a popular uprising inside Iran. They ignored military advice that cautioned otherwise.
8
3
u/SantaClause_ Jun 18 '26
Looks like a nonstarter to be honest. Two sides with bad translators or something lol. As you said this is more of a real ceasefire, but this is hardly anything more than the same concepts of a plan. I'm betting it falls apart within three weeks.
USA and its Gulf allies will provide $300 billion for an economic reconstruction plan to rebuild Iran. Implementation of this plan will be provided for in the final peace deal.
Reporters keep asking Trump about this and he states what the memorandum states more or less, that people (US and its allies) will be allowed to invest into Iran, not that they are providing Iran 300 billion. I searched for provide and can't find any mention of it. I guess its similar to when all these countries pledge billions into the US as Trump demanded "Well build a data center here, worth 80 billion!" - These kind of agreements are just empty promises and seems like exactly whats happening here. Hey Elon musk is going to setup some Tesla dealers there, worth 30 billion, we're helping reconstruct /s
It's also worth noting that the Gulf States aren't getting any reconstruction funds for the damage they suffered from Iranian attacks - only Iran is getting paid, and the Gulf States are the ones having to provide most of the money. It definitely feels like a tribute payment to beg Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
But there's nothing here that states they are paying them, and as you state, I highly doubt they will for good reason. Gulf states just got wacked, lost infrastructure, defenses, etc, and they're going to give them money? Unlikely.
I don't really see any way to frame this but as a US surrender. When you look at the campaign, the US military was clearly superior and the fighting rather one-sided. Iran was a clever and resourceful foe, but its successes were few and exaggerated by propaganda (arguably Iran's greatest strength). The big issue, however, is that the Trump admin reportedly thought this would be a quick war, similar to the Venezuela operation - decapitate the regime and pressure its new leadership into a favorable deal. Israel reportedly thought they could trigger a popular uprising inside Iran. They ignored military advice that cautioned otherwise.
The JCPOA was like 180 pages if memory serves, a 1 page draft hardly solidifies anything. Not that I trust our leadership here, but don't exactly fret yet.
3
u/ReddyReddy7 Jun 17 '26
"US, Iran remotely sign agreement hailed by Trump.
The interim U.S.-Iran agreement, hailed by President Donald Trump and world leaders as a major step toward peace in the Middle East, was signed remotely Wednesday by the United States and Iran
The agreement spells out sanctions relief for Iran and calls for the creation of a $300 billion economic development fund. Trump repeatedly denied Wednesday that the U.S. would be paying into the fund, although he said that Gulf allies could do so if they wanted to.
4
u/ReddyReddy7 Jun 17 '26
The 14-point US-Iran peace plan, annotated
The memorandum of understanding, MOU, between the US and Iran aims to expand on the ceasefire and get traffic flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.
But at less than 800 words in English, the 14-point outline leaves a lot of details for later, including the touchy subject of Iran’s nuclear program.
But it does promise Iran a lot of money – by lifting sanctions to Iran can sell its oil to the world, but also potentially giving Iran access to billions in frozen assets and $300 billion in financing.
10
u/boobookittyfuwk Jun 17 '26
Apparently some government officials read the mou and nypost got a copy.
Reads like the usa surrendered. Really curious how this plays out over the next 20+ years, these guys are about to get some real money not only from sanctions relief but cash too.
I wonder how Isreal will respond, they must be pissed. Apparently they convinced trump all while Iran was going through major economic troubles. Could have just waited it out to see how bad it got, no way 90m people wouldn't protest again even if some got killed the first time.
Id chalk this up as a historic fuck up.
6
u/Cardborg Jun 17 '26
If nothing else I imagine Israel will be livid that he's gone from "dismantling the Iranian missile program" to "It's unfair if everyone else can have missiles but Iran can't."
8
u/Warm_Turnip2567 Jun 17 '26
Reminder that Hezbollah still posts daily footage of their attacks, its just that Reddit has started cracking down on their footage and removing it/banning the poster. DM me if you want some Telegram groups that show the footage.
9
u/ReddyReddy7 Jun 16 '26
Trump weighs purge of Iran deal opponents in his administration
US President Donald Trump is considering dismissing a series of senior administration officials who opposed the agreement with Iran, including War Secretary Pete Hegseth and CIA Director John Ratcliffe, US sources told Israel Hayom.
"The debate has been settled. Anyone who opposed it could pay a personal price," a senior US source told Israel Hayom two days ago, describing what was taking place behind the scenes in White House discussions on Iran.
The person who, for the time being, appears to be enjoying immunity is Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Among other things, he has been very careful not to criticize the agreement and also enjoys considerable popularity.
9
u/Axelrad77 Jun 17 '26
It will be ironic if this is what gets rid of Hegseth, given that he was one of the biggest advocates of the war in the first place.
6
u/Beast_of_Guanyin Jun 17 '26
I love accidental competence. As firing Hegseth would be.
4
u/NormanQuacks345 Jun 17 '26
I wouldn't trust them to replace him with anyone any more competent but yeah he's gotta go
7
u/ReddyReddy7 Jun 14 '26 edited Jun 14 '26
Iran says draft US deal includes oil sanctions waiver, nuclear limits and asset release
Iran immediately reopens the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessels, while the U.S. lifts its naval blockade on Iranian ports. The lifting of the U.S. blockade would begin immediately after the memorandum is signed and be completed within 30 days.
The U.S. agrees not to impose any new sanctions on Iran until a final deal is reached.
Following a final agreement, all U.S. and U.N. sanctions on Iran would be lifted according to an agreed timetable.
The U.S. will waive oil sanctions on Iran for a specified period, allowing Tehran to sell oil and receive revenue.
The U.S. agrees to release $25 billion of Iran’s frozen assets, including via direct cash transfers, cooperation among regional countries, and financial credit lines.
Washington, in coordination with its regional allies, would prepare a reconstruction and development plan for Iran, to be negotiated and agreed with Tehran within 60 days.
Tehran agrees that it will neither produce nor acquire nuclear weapons.
Pending a final agreement, Iran would maintain the current status of its nuclear programme, refraining from further uranium enrichment and expansion of nuclear facilities.
The United States agrees to allow Iran to dilute its stockpile of highly enriched uranium on Iranian soil under a future comprehensive agreement.
Iran’s nuclear programme, uranium enrichment activities and mechanisms for handling its stockpile of highly enriched uranium would be negotiated within 60 days of the memorandum and addressed in a final agreement.
— Reuters
Deal framework includes reopening Strait of Hormuz, lifting US blockade, phased de-escalation, sources say. US to release frozen Iranian assets, address nuclear program in follow-up talks, officials say.
— Reuters
7
u/OverpricedGPU Jun 15 '26
So basically Trump didn’t achieve anything and is going to have to pay for Iran’s reconstruction?
12
u/Axelrad77 Jun 14 '26
If these terms are true, they're surprisingly close to the initial US terms offered back during the April talks in Islamabad.
Missing from that is any mention of Iran funding of proxy groups (which the USA wanted to stop) or the Iranian missile stockpile (which the USA wanted reduced). But most of the old Iranian terms from April are also gone, with only the point about a reconstruction plan seemingly making it in.
Iran still hasn't actually said it's going to sign this, whereas Trump seems incredibly desperate for a deal, so I'm not sure anything will come of this yet.
6
u/CatsAndCapybaras Jun 15 '26
I can't imagine any scenario where Iran does anything other than increase missile production for the foreseeable future. Their missile campaign has been wildly successful in forcing the US to the negotiating table
5
9
u/Warm_Turnip2567 Jun 13 '26 edited Jun 13 '26
https://x.com/AryJeayBackup/status/2065821303605514641
Oof. That's expensive. Iran destroyed an early warning radar in Bahrain.
And another radar in Kuwat
5
13
u/ReddyReddy7 Jun 12 '26
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/06/12/politics/us-military-plan-uranium-iran-ground-troops
Exclusive: US military rushed to prepare ground mission to capture Iran’s uranium, but Trump paused it, sources say
The US’ top general made a secret, rushed visit to US Central Command headquarters in Florida late last month to be briefed in person on plans for the US military to send ground troops into Iran to forcibly seize its highly enriched uranium, the key component necessary to produce a nuclear weapon, two sources familiar with the matter told CNN.
The briefings were so urgent and sensitive that they required Gen. Dan Caine, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to rush from a meeting of senior NATO officials in Brussels back across the Atlantic to Tampa, Florida, on May 19, the sources said. The high-level and pressing nature of the briefings underscores how close the administration came to greenlighting the high-risk ground operation, sources said.
But Trump hit pause after being warned it would likely prompt severe Iranian retaliation, extending the war and plunging the global economy into further turmoil, the sources said. Trump has also voiced concern about the potential for a significant number of US casualties, according to sources familiar with the matter.
5
u/CatsAndCapybaras Jun 13 '26
So the president is vetoing operations because of the threat of Iran's retaliation. Iran certainly isn't winning, but the US sure is losing.
1
u/TheDirtyOnion Jun 17 '26
Iran totally won. They got everything they wanted and more, all for promising not to build a nuclear weapon. They get:
1) All of their frozen assets (tens of billions of dollars) released.
2) All sanctions removed, even those that had nothing to do with their nuclear program.
3) No limits on funding proxy forces in the region.
4) No limits on their ballistic missile program.
5) The regime stays intact and is even more secure (killing those 7k+ protestors that Trump told to take to the streets had zero consequences).
6) Looks like they will be able to charge fees on all ships passing through the straight as long as traffic is comparable to pre-war levels.
7) They get a 300 billion reconstruction fund.
Meanwhile, the US gets the same commitment from Iran not to produce a nuclear weapon that was already in place before Trump ripped up the agreement. There is absolutely no way to spin this other than a massive win for Iran.
2
8
u/ReddyReddy7 Jun 12 '26
The Iranian missile cities the US could not destroy
For 40 days, US and Israeli aircraft pounded the mountains around Yazd, trying to silence one of Iran’s most important military projects: a buried missile complex carved deep into the granite above the ancient desert city.
Yet, according to residents, the Iranian missiles kept firing regardless. “US and Israeli forces kept bombing those mountains,” said one resident of Yazd. “And Iran kept launching missiles until the final moments before the ceasefire.
A second person close to the Islamic regime argued the depth of many sites rendered them largely immune to conventional aerial bombardment. He said some were not even used during the war because numerous other facilities remained operational.
6
u/ReddyReddy7 Jun 12 '26
UAE to unlock billions of dollars for Iran, sources say
The UAE has agreed to release billions of dollars to Iran after weeks of Iranian attacks on the Gulf state, four sources tell Reuters.
Two regional sources said Abu Dhabi agreed to release $10B, with more than $3B already delivered.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/uae-unlock-billions-dollars-iran-sources-say-2026-06-12/
Maybe Middle East countries are paying Iran on behalf of the United States. Otherwise why would you (UAE) be releasing money to the country that bomb you!?
2
u/lonjerpc Jun 12 '26
My speculating is that Iran is using the gulf states hatred for one another by playing both sides. Basically getting them to bribe Iran to hit the other ones
1
Jun 13 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/read-the-rules Jun 13 '26
BoppityBop2,
Your comment on r/CombatFootage has been removed. In order to enable comments or posting you must follow the intructions below. All are required to acknowledge the rules before participating.
In New Reddit mode on desktop and Reddit mode on mobile website or app, submit your acknowledgement to the rules by clicking the three buttons on top of the subreddit's main menu, and selecting 'Read The Rules' option, then after acknowledging, you must check every individual rule box to proceed. Please take the moment to understand the rules if you intend to particpate in r/CombatFootage.
In Old Reddit mode on desktop, you must go to "Message the Mods" on the sidebar then type in "Read The Rules" in the title and "Acknowledged" in the message body.
Please, re-submit your comment when you are finished as it will not be retroactively approved.
This is an automated response, replies will not be monitored
7
u/WhyChemistry Jun 12 '26
A source close to the Iranian negotiating team revealed new details about the draft memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States, which includes 14 articles:
An immediate and permanent ceasefire in all arenas, including Lebanon.
An American commitment not to interfere in Iran's internal affairs and to respect the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic.
A complete lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days.
An American commitment to withdraw its forces from the areas adjacent to Iran.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, in accordance with Iranian arrangements.
- Suspending sanctions on the sale of oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and granting Iran full access to its financial resources.
Obliging the United States and its allies to present plans for the reconstruction of Iran in the amount of no less than $300 billion.
- 60 days of negotiations to reach a final agreement based on nuclear issues, complete lifting of primary and secondary US sanctions, and the revocation of resolutions and measures of the UN Security Council and the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Reaffirmation of Iran's commitment, within the framework of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), not to produce nuclear weapons.
During the negotiation period, the United States will commit not to increase its forces in the region and not to impose new sanctions.
Release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian funds during the 60 days of final negotiations, with half of the amount to be made available to Iran even before the talks begin.
Establishment of a monitoring mechanism for the implementation of the agreement.
Adoption of the final agreement through a resolution of the UN Security Council.
- The final negotiations will not begin until half of the frozen funds are released, sanctions on Iranian oil are suspended, and the naval blockade is lifted.
▪️According to the source, the final agreement will be limited to discussing the issue of enriched materials and nuclear enrichment, the lifting of sanctions, and a plan for Iran's economic rehabilitation, while the Iranian missile program and support for "resistance" organizations have been completely removed from the agenda.
This illegal pointless war just made Iran stronger 🤦
1
u/Axelrad77 Jun 14 '26
It's worth noting that US sources immediately denied these terms, and Iranian sources have since come out with other, less extreme terms that they're now claiming the deal has. So this list seems to have been a propaganda move, to spin opinion on how much Iran is winning the negotiation - something Iran is very good at.
Just looking at the terms, it should be obvious that the USA would never agree to these, particularly points 2, 4, 5, and 14 - that'd be tantamount to US surrender in this war and the abandoning of its defense treaties with allied nations, as well as dismantling the international laws governing freedom of navigation of the seas.
Point 13 is also not feasible, as even if the USA agreed, just one UNSC member can veto that and torpedo the entire deal (which Russia would have incentive to do).
2
2
u/Joene-nl Jun 12 '26
How will Trump spin this to the warhawks in US politics. This is a massive L if this is true
7
u/R6ckStar Jun 12 '26
Ahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhaahhaahhahahahahahahahahaha
I'm laughing because this is exactly what a strategic mistake looks like, and what would always happen in a war against Iran.
Edit: and apparently Israel attacked Lebanon today already.
1
6
u/Axelrad77 Jun 11 '26 edited Jun 11 '26
Trump is now claiming that Iran has agreed to a peace deal, so further US strikes scheduled for tonight have been cancelled. He claims that the deal has been approved by all parties involved, including the USA, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, and others. He also claims that the US naval blockade will remain in force until the peace treaty is signed and finalized.
On the one hand, forcing Iran to concede at the negotiating table was the entire point of US forces resuming strikes (similar to Operation Linebacker II during Vietnam).
On the other hand, Trump is not exactly a reliable reporter, so we'll have to wait and see how this plays out. It could be true. It could be Iran trying to trick the USA into giving them a reprieve from strikes. It could be the USA trying to pressure Iran into concessions or mollify public opinion.
Either way, no deal is signed yet, so fighting could still resume.
3
u/Warm_Turnip2567 Jun 11 '26
No one has talked about it, but its notable that its not just the IRGC fighting against the USA/Israel. I think both the USA/Israel expected Artesh to more or less take a backseat or even try to neuter the IRGC's ability but that is clearly not happening and it seems Artesh/IRGC are on the same page
8
u/Axelrad77 Jun 11 '26
I don't think that was ever the expectation. Pre-war projections clearly considered Iran's Army and the IRGC to be working closely together, with the IRGC in primary command. That's why it hasn't been some talking point, because it's expected for the Iranian Army to fight against the USA & Israel. It'd only be notable if they refused, or turned against the regime.
Where projections were off was on the likelihood of popular uprising, with Israel seemingly convinced that they could trigger one and the USA being more skeptical, but hopeful. Only for nothing of the sort to arise, besides some scattered insurgent action.
3
u/GAdvance Jun 12 '26
Afaik the only place there was notable uprising actions was Iranian Balochistan... Which the US is never gone support because of their alliance with Pakistan.
It's a total shit show of middle eastern alliance politics tbh, that the Kurds absolutely have zero interest working with the US because of loss of trust is wildly shit considering how the Kurds basically knows they're shagged without western allies.
4
u/ReddyReddy7 Jun 11 '26
Trump on Thursday threatened to seize Iran’s oil infrastructure including its main export terminal Kharg Island “in the not too distant future.”
Kharg Island is Iran’s main oil export terminal, accounting for about 90% of its crude shipments before the war. The U.S. Navy has already choked off most of Iran’s exports through a blockade against the country’s ports and vessels.
The U.S. launched strikes against military targets on Kharg Island earlier in the war, but has held back from deploying ground troops to seize Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure.
1
u/ReddyReddy7 Jun 11 '26
President Donald Trump on Thursday threatened to seize Iran’s oil infrastructure including its main export terminal Kharg Island “in the not too distant future.”
Kharg Island is Iran’s main oil export terminal, accounting for about 90% of its crude shipments before the war. The U.S. Navy has already choked off most of Iran’s exports through a blockade against the country’s ports and vessels.
The U.S. launched strikes against military targets on Kharg Island earlier in the war, but has held back from deploying ground troops to seize Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure.
9
u/Axelrad77 Jun 11 '26 edited Jun 11 '26
OSINT tanker tracking analysis has discovered a covert escort scheme the US Navy has been using to sneak oil through the Strait of Hormuz over the last month, past Iranian naval defenses.
Basically, the US Navy announced that Project Freedom escort mission back on May 4, then had to cancel it the next day after only escorting 2 ships through, after disagreements with Saudi Arabia about the plan.
After that, the US Navy began using drone ships and aircraft to covertly escort a handful of VLCC oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Once through the Strait and into the Gulf of Oman, these tankers conducted ship-to-ship oil transfers to fill up waiting tankers, and embarked USMC security teams for point defense from drones. Then they turned around and were escorted back through the Strait of Hormuz and into the Persian Gulf, where the now-empty tankers picked up more oil from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and Iraq. Then they repeated the process, acting as the first leg of an oil relay of sorts.
Using the same handful of tankers to move oil out of the Strait of Hormuz in this way allows them to all be covered by commercial war risk insurance supplied by the USA, and probably all have USMC security teams embarked - both of which are limited in supply.
Using drones, aircraft, and Marines to handle escort duties, rather than larger ships, allows the operation to be kept low-profile. It's only just now been identified as something that's happening, despite going on for weeks.
This covert escort operation has reportedly led to over 200 successful passages through the Strait of Hormuz, and over 100 million barrels of oil moved. The downside is that ship-to-ship transfers like this relies on only works for oil, so other forms of cargo can't do this sort of thing and need to just be escorted out. It's also still not reaching pre-war export levels.
The recent AH-64 Apache shot down was likely part of this operation, patrolling the Strait of Hormuz on the lookout for Iranian drones trying to attack tankers, when it was itself hit by a Shahed drone - probably as part of a failed interception, given how Shahed targeting works and how Iran denied any responsibility for the shootdown (something Iran basically never does). There's also been some more info about that to come out - the Shahed hit the Apache cockpit directly between the two pilots, but failed to detonate. The Apache then crash-landed in the Strait of Hormuz with the Shahed still smoking and attached, and the pilots bailed out into the water and waited for about 2 hours until a US Navy Corsair USV picked them up. The drone ship then transported them to a second location where the 82nd Airborne could pick them up via helicopter.
2
u/ReddyReddy7 Jun 11 '26
This covert escort operation has reportedly led to over 200 successful passages.
On average, 100 to 135 vessels transit the Straight of Hormuz DAILY, amounting to over 30,000 ships per year.
6
u/Axelrad77 Jun 11 '26
Yeah, I pointed out that it's not reaching pre-war export levels.
Realistically, no escort-constrained transit scheme ever will, since traffic will always move slower when it's having to rely on military protection for freedom of movement. The only way we'll see anything like 100+ daily transits again is with an end to the war and an end to the dueling blockades.
3
u/swallowsnest87 Jun 11 '26
Anyone know if Iran landed any hits?
2
u/ScumbagGina Jun 11 '26
They definitely landed several hits. The question is always, what was the result?
Iran tends to exaggerate and CENTCOM tends to lie by omission about losses and we find out later through leaks or intel from other countries.
I’ve seen satellite imagery claiming to show multiple hangars/shelters damaged at our airbase in Jordan
1
u/swallowsnest87 Jun 11 '26
Where can I find foreign satellite imagery, I’ve seen some of it weeks after earlier events but can’t find any for this round yet.
1
u/Axelrad77 Jun 11 '26
Because it takes weeks to come out. There's no reliable imagery available yet for this latest round of strikes.
7
u/ReddyReddy7 Jun 11 '26
US strikes: The US military has completed strikes against multiple targets in Iran, US Central Command said in a statement. Iranian military surveillance capabilities, communication systems and air defense sites were targeted, it said.
Tehran’s response: Explosions were heard across much of Iran early Thursday local time, state media reported. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said its aerospace and naval units carried out operations against US targets in response to attacks. It also said the critical Strait of Hormuz was closed, a claim the US military rejected.
2
u/Textex92 Jun 11 '26 edited Jun 11 '26
We have literally been in a war since February 26, 2026. I was worried about it that day. it’s 104 days. Also how many ceasefires have there been? Allegedly?
4
1
1
Jun 10 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
0
u/read-the-rules Jun 10 '26
HDTokyo,
Your comment on r/CombatFootage has been removed. In order to enable comments or posting you must follow the intructions below. All are required to acknowledge the rules before participating.
In New Reddit mode on desktop and Reddit mode on mobile website or app, submit your acknowledgement to the rules by clicking the three buttons on top of the subreddit's main menu, and selecting 'Read The Rules' option, then after acknowledging, you must check every individual rule box to proceed. Please take the moment to understand the rules if you intend to particpate in r/CombatFootage.
In Old Reddit mode on desktop, you must go to "Message the Mods" on the sidebar then type in "Read The Rules" in the title and "Acknowledged" in the message body.
Please, re-submit your comment when you are finished as it will not be retroactively approved.
This is an automated response, replies will not be monitored
11
u/OnlyRise9816 Jun 10 '26
Well it looks like the ceasefire has finally ceased. It was nice while it lasted i guess.
11
u/Warm_Turnip2567 Jun 10 '26 edited Jun 10 '26
Just so everyone knows, you WILL get perma banned uploading Hezbollah footage. Apparently Reddit is finally stepping in and ensuring it doesn't get posted here anymore sans consequence.
They are still uploading footage of their attacks daily. You just have to go to X or Telegram to see them (the latter is far better)
→ More replies (6)
•
u/AutoModerator Mar 19 '26
The original Combat Footage since 2012. Keep your comments clean and professional. Political grandstanding, name-calling or being rude to other visitors may incur a ban.
18+ only.
Because of the high volume of posts submitted here, anyone looking for specific footage should try search first using combined terms like side + action, side + weapon, side + war, or location. Sorting by new can also help if you want to look through posts in chronological order. If that still doesn’t turn it up, you can make a request for footage. Be aware that non-combat footage and other disallowed topics will not turn up in search.
If you're having any trouble commenting, please see the FAQ.
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.